Global Crowd Intelligence Needs Your Help
Global Crowd Intelligence (GCI) is an experimental site set up to see if crowd sourcing can improve forecasting accuracy on issues all around the world. Their main focus is to see if it is possible to predict the outcome of current events, like elections, technology and military conflicts.
We use the actual outcomes to score your performance and determine the accuracy of our methods. Forecast topics are not related to actual intelligence operations. The data we collect is only used to improve our forecasting methods. Access levels reflect forecast difficulty and are not related in any way to government security clearances.
You can make forecasts anonymously and we only ask for minimal personal information so we can track and report your progress. We protect any personally identifiable data and do not share it with any government agency or anyone else. Our goal is that you enjoy the challenge of forecasting real-world events, the competitive nature of the site, and the social aspects of discussing future events with other interested individuals. We only use your forecasts to get smarter about how a crowd can make the best possible forecasts.
(Global Crowd Intelligence leader boards)
Here's how you can participate:
A mission is a forecast question about a future world event. Every mission has an opening/starting and closing/finishing time. You accept a mission by providing your own prediction for a forecast question. You can also participate in discussions regarding each mission and see who else is participating. Over time, new evidence may emerge and you may have additional insights. You are encouraged to periodically review and update your active missions.
You earn XP [experience points] when you accept a mission, make a comment, make a forecast, are correct, or earn achievements. You never lose experience. As your experience increases, you will progress to higher levels.
As your XP grows, more missions and capabilities will be available to you. Each level comes with a new ribbon next to your alias. Your dossier shows your current level, number of experience points, and how close you are to the next level. Activities and comments of all analysts are displayed and they show the level of the analyst that provided them. The higher your level, the more likely it is that other analysts pay attention to your inputs.
In his 1975 novel The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner introduces sf readers to the idea of a Delphi pool:
It works, approximately, like this.
First you corner a large - if possible, a very large - number of people who, while they've never formally studied the subject you're going to ask them about and hence are unlikely to recall the correct answer, are nonetheless plugged into the culture to which the question relates.
Then you ask them, as it might be, to estimate how many people died in the great influenza epidemic which followed World War I...
Curiously, when you consolidate their replies they tend to cluster around the actual figure as recorded in almanacs, yearbooks and statical returns.
(Read more about Brunner's Delphi pool)
Brunner presumably derives his idea from the Delphi method, which was created by the Rand Corporation in 1949 to try to improve predictions of what would happen under the Cold War. The Delphi method differs from what Brunner suggested, in that it relied on panels of experts under the guidance of a facilitator. Brunner is a very early pioneer in the idea of crowd-sourced applications, probably because he had already conceived of the idea of a national data-net with hundreds of millions of users.
I'd also like to point out that I've turned comments back on and the contact form is also open.
Take a look at GlobalCrowd.com via Kurzweil AI.
Scroll down for more stories in the same category. (Story submitted 10/17/2012)
Follow this kind of news @Technovelgy.
| Email | RSS | Blog It | Stumble | del.icio.us | Digg | Reddit |
you like to contribute a story tip?
Get the URL of the story, and the related sf author, and add
Comment/Join discussion ( 0 )
Related News Stories -
Sex In Driverless Cars? Updated With Video!
'...admirable for petting.' - David H. Keller, 1935.
Xinhua AI Anchor Puts CGI Face To Automated News
'...a congeries of software agents.' - William Gibson, 1996.
Wirewax Watching You Watch, Adjusting Your Experience
'He adjusted the n, the r and b knobs, and hopefully anticipated a turn for the better...' - Philip K. Dick, 1964.
Disney Keeps Backups Of Star Wars Franchise Actors
'She is a personality-construct, a congeries of software agents...' - William Gibson, 1996.
Technovelgy (that's tech-novel-gee!)
is devoted to the creative science inventions and ideas of sf authors. Look for
the Invention Category that interests
you, the Glossary, the Invention
Timeline, or see what's New.
North Focals Smart Glasses Provide Augmented Reality In Style
'The world ... is drenched in unfamiliar information all the way to the horizon.'
Tesla Driver Caught Napping Behind The Wheel
'Mary Risling settled back for a little nap...'
Hayabusa 2 To Begin Asteroid Mining
'We must dig down, and then doubtless we shall find the metal.'
Ionocraft Drone Powered By Electrohydrodynamic Thrust
'He saw one hiss by him as he rounded the corner, trailing a short whip antenna...'
Purdue Pharma Ready To Profit From OxyContin Use Or Addiction Recovery
'It may be organic damage. It may be permanent. Time'll tell, and only after you are off Substance D for a long while.'
BloxVox Mutes Cellphone Convos
It's the polite thing to do, and has been the polite thing to do for about four generations.
Superfast Replicator: Volumetric Additive Manufacturing
I can't wait. Bring it on.
DNA May Contain Malware
'You were told to embed the logical pathogen.'
I Can't Resist Worm Robots
'Seen close it was not completely flexible...'
Rplate Digital License Plates Now Legal In Michigan
'Gragg's digital ink license plates ...'
Can Musk Starship Astronauts Use Magnetic Boots?
'Walking awkwardly in the magnetic boots that held him to the black mass of meteoric iron...'
Giant Dolphin Spotted On Jupiter!
'Now at last he could appreciate its real size and complexity...'
Musk's Starship An SF Fan's Dream Come True
Perfect for testing, perfect for fans!
TinyMobileRobots Are Sewer Sentinels
Every movie monster gets its start someplace.
Fishy Facial Recognition Now Possible
'Palenkis can identify random line patterns better than any other species in the universe.'
Spicy Tomatoes Created With Genetic Engineering
How about mashed potatoes and brown gravy?
More SF in the News Stories
More Beyond Technovelgy science news stories