Global Crowd Intelligence Needs Your Help

Global Crowd Intelligence (GCI) is an experimental site set up to see if crowd sourcing can improve forecasting accuracy on issues all around the world. Their main focus is to see if it is possible to predict the outcome of current events, like elections, technology and military conflicts.

We use the actual outcomes to score your performance and determine the accuracy of our methods. Forecast topics are not related to actual intelligence operations. The data we collect is only used to improve our forecasting methods. Access levels reflect forecast difficulty and are not related in any way to government security clearances.

You can make forecasts anonymously and we only ask for minimal personal information so we can track and report your progress. We protect any personally identifiable data and do not share it with any government agency or anyone else. Our goal is that you enjoy the challenge of forecasting real-world events, the competitive nature of the site, and the social aspects of discussing future events with other interested individuals. We only use your forecasts to get smarter about how a crowd can make the best possible forecasts.


(Global Crowd Intelligence leader boards)

Here's how you can participate:

A mission is a forecast question about a future world event. Every mission has an opening/starting and closing/finishing time. You accept a mission by providing your own prediction for a forecast question. You can also participate in discussions regarding each mission and see who else is participating. Over time, new evidence may emerge and you may have additional insights. You are encouraged to periodically review and update your active missions.

You earn XP [experience points] when you accept a mission, make a comment, make a forecast, are correct, or earn achievements. You never lose experience. As your experience increases, you will progress to higher levels.

As your XP grows, more missions and capabilities will be available to you. Each level comes with a new ribbon next to your alias. Your dossier shows your current level, number of experience points, and how close you are to the next level. Activities and comments of all analysts are displayed and they show the level of the analyst that provided them. The higher your level, the more likely it is that other analysts pay attention to your inputs.

In his 1975 novel The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner introduces sf readers to the idea of a Delphi pool:

It works, approximately, like this.

First you corner a large - if possible, a very large - number of people who, while they've never formally studied the subject you're going to ask them about and hence are unlikely to recall the correct answer, are nonetheless plugged into the culture to which the question relates.

Then you ask them, as it might be, to estimate how many people died in the great influenza epidemic which followed World War I...

Curiously, when you consolidate their replies they tend to cluster around the actual figure as recorded in almanacs, yearbooks and statical returns.
(Read more about Brunner's Delphi pool)

Brunner presumably derives his idea from the Delphi method, which was created by the Rand Corporation in 1949 to try to improve predictions of what would happen under the Cold War. The Delphi method differs from what Brunner suggested, in that it relied on panels of experts under the guidance of a facilitator. Brunner is a very early pioneer in the idea of crowd-sourced applications, probably because he had already conceived of the idea of a national data-net with hundreds of millions of users.

I'd also like to point out that I've turned comments back on and the contact form is also open.

Take a look at GlobalCrowd.com via Kurzweil AI.

Scroll down for more stories in the same category. (Story submitted 10/17/2012)

Follow this kind of news @Technovelgy.

| Email | RSS | Blog It | Stumble | del.icio.us | Digg | Reddit |

Would you like to contribute a story tip? It's easy:
Get the URL of the story, and the related sf author, and add it here.

Comment/Join discussion ( 0 )

Related News Stories - (" Culture ")

The Neuroon Open Sleep Tracker For Lucid Dreaming
'Leads trail away from insertion points on her face and wrist... to a lucid dreamer on the bedside shelf.' - Peter Watts, 1999.

'Do Not Pay' Chatbots To Replace Law Firm Associates?
'I want my lawyer program.' - David Brin, 1990.

Translate One2One From IBM's Watson Your Communication Solution
'It then excretes into the mind of its carrier a telepathic matrix...' - Douglas Adams, 1979.

News Now Philip K. Dick's Bailiwick
'A vast complex electronic organism... responsible to no one...' - Philip K. Dick, 1963.

 

Google
  Web TechNovelgy.com   

Technovelgy (that's tech-novel-gee!) is devoted to the creative science inventions and ideas of sf authors. Look for the Invention Category that interests you, the Glossary, the Invention Timeline, or see what's New.

 

 

 

 

 

Current News

Pegasus, Nvidia Supercomputer For Autonomous Driving
'...a 2045 convertible with a Hennis-Carleton positronic motor and an Armat chassis.'

Loihi Chip Mimics Human Brain's Neurons And Synapses
'You can hook a Thorsen tube into a control circuit... and the tube will "remember" what was done and can direct the operation...'

Self-Assembling Bacteria Build A Pressure Sensor
Nature is a master of fabricating structured materials consisting of living and non-living components.

3D Printed Artificial Muscles Are Stronger Than Yours
Bots don't need to work out.

Fog Computing (AKA Edge Computing) Ad Hoc Networks
'The tiny devices chirped their impulse codes at one another...'

Dubai Scorpion Police Hoverbike Ready To Pull Young Kirk Over
'Is there a problem, officer?'

HEXA Robotic Help For Plants
Then some unknown race had chanced upon the dreamers and decided to "help them out."

Korean Tesla Model S Video 'Excelsior' Is Indeed Our Motto
'Improving man by bringing him close to Nature, while they combine the sensations of coasting with the interest of seeing the country well...'

DIY Robot Shoots You In The Face
'...there were automatic guns that fired ligamine darts.'

A Bayesian Approach to Safe Imitation Learning For AIs and Robots
Um, how about that pension for the humans who serve as the models for robot behavior?

Qoobo Headless Robotic Therapy Cat Was Anne McCaffrey's Idea
'...used as surrogates in intense dependency cases.'

Autonomous Cars Talk To Each Other At MCity
'My cars talk to one another.'

PUFFER Robots - From Philip K DIck's Second Variety?
'Across the ground something small and metallic came, flashing in the dull sunlight of midday.'

Russian Space Garden
'We saw the gardens, flooded with artificial sunlight...'

Targeted Neuroplasticity Training For 'Downloading Skills'
'I know kung-fu.'

U of M's MCity To Feature Asimov's Automatobuses
Should you turn autonomous buses off?

More SF in the News Stories

More Beyond Technovelgy science news stories

Home | Glossary | Invention Timeline | Category | New | Contact Us | FAQ | Advertise |
Technovelgy.com - where science meets fiction™

Copyright© Technovelgy LLC; all rights reserved.