Global Crowd Intelligence Needs Your Help
Global Crowd Intelligence (GCI) is an experimental site set up to see if crowd sourcing can improve forecasting accuracy on issues all around the world. Their main focus is to see if it is possible to predict the outcome of current events, like elections, technology and military conflicts.
We use the actual outcomes to score your performance and determine the accuracy of our methods. Forecast topics are not related to actual intelligence operations. The data we collect is only used to improve our forecasting methods. Access levels reflect forecast difficulty and are not related in any way to government security clearances.
You can make forecasts anonymously and we only ask for minimal personal information so we can track and report your progress. We protect any personally identifiable data and do not share it with any government agency or anyone else. Our goal is that you enjoy the challenge of forecasting real-world events, the competitive nature of the site, and the social aspects of discussing future events with other interested individuals. We only use your forecasts to get smarter about how a crowd can make the best possible forecasts.
(Global Crowd Intelligence leader boards)
Here's how you can participate:
A mission is a forecast question about a future world event. Every mission has an opening/starting and closing/finishing time. You accept a mission by providing your own prediction for a forecast question. You can also participate in discussions regarding each mission and see who else is participating. Over time, new evidence may emerge and you may have additional insights. You are encouraged to periodically review and update your active missions.
You earn XP [experience points] when you accept a mission, make a comment, make a forecast, are correct, or earn achievements. You never lose experience. As your experience increases, you will progress to higher levels.
As your XP grows, more missions and capabilities will be available to you. Each level comes with a new ribbon next to your alias. Your dossier shows your current level, number of experience points, and how close you are to the next level. Activities and comments of all analysts are displayed and they show the level of the analyst that provided them. The higher your level, the more likely it is that other analysts pay attention to your inputs.
In his 1975 novel The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner introduces sf readers to the idea of a Delphi pool:
It works, approximately, like this.
First you corner a large - if possible, a very large - number of people who, while they've never formally studied the subject you're going to ask them about and hence are unlikely to recall the correct answer, are nonetheless plugged into the culture to which the question relates.
Then you ask them, as it might be, to estimate how many people died in the great influenza epidemic which followed World War I...
Curiously, when you consolidate their replies they tend to cluster around the actual figure as recorded in almanacs, yearbooks and statical returns.
(Read more about Brunner's Delphi pool)
Brunner presumably derives his idea from the Delphi method, which was created by the Rand Corporation in 1949 to try to improve predictions of what would happen under the Cold War. The Delphi method differs from what Brunner suggested, in that it relied on panels of experts under the guidance of a facilitator. Brunner is a very early pioneer in the idea of crowd-sourced applications, probably because he had already conceived of the idea of a national data-net with hundreds of millions of users.
I'd also like to point out that I've turned comments back on and the contact form is also open.
Take a look at GlobalCrowd.com via Kurzweil AI.
Scroll down for more stories in the same category. (Story submitted 10/17/2012)
Follow this kind of news @Technovelgy.
| Email | RSS | Blog It | Stumble | del.icio.us | Digg | Reddit |
you like to contribute a story tip?
Get the URL of the story, and the related sf author, and add
Comment/Join discussion ( 0 )
Related News Stories -
Deepfakes Imperil Democracy (George Orwell, Right Again)
'All history was a palimpsest, scraped clean and reinscribed exactly as often as was necessary.' - George Orwell, 1948.
Inspired By Japan, Nap Pods For Hajj
It's always a good time for a nap.
'Snapchat Dysmorphia' Now A Thing, Say Plastic Surgeons
'The program raced up the screen one scan line at a time, subtly smoothing, deleting and coloring.' - Bruce Sterling, 1985.
Bot Tweets Venmo Drug Transactions
An alarming item to find on your twitter feed.
Technovelgy (that's tech-novel-gee!)
is devoted to the creative science inventions and ideas of sf authors. Look for
the Invention Category that interests
you, the Glossary, the Invention
Timeline, or see what's New.
Jaguar I-Pace Audible Vehicle Alert System For EVs
'Of course not a vehicle moved by means of internal explosions of a derivative of rock oil...'
Autonomous 'Fiberbots' Weave Large Structures
'It extrudes material like a spider.'
Birds Aren't Real - Wake Up, California! (With Bird Watching Guide)
'When he had first built them, they had been crude indeed, flying mechanisms with little more than a reflex-response unit.'
Self-Healing Material Pulls Carbon Out Of The Air
'... could seal the punctures.'
IRL Glasses Block Screens, Limit Vision To Real Life
'If you couldn't see the ads, how would you know what was fashionable?'
Testing The Single-Person Spacecraft
'...the lower part of the suit was simply a rigid cylinder.'
Shapeshifting Materials Transform By Light
'Its lines wavered, flowed, and then painfully reformed.'
Fully Automated Farm Iron Ox Hydroponics
'Had these machines in some incredible fashion been provided with brains?'
BrainNet Social Network Of Brains
'I used my implant to tell MILLIE what we wanted and she took care of it'
Phil Nuyttnn's City Under The Sea
'Under the lower roof there was no water, but a clear and luminous atmosphere...'
IONITY Opens First 10 Fast-Charging Stations
'Recharge the batteries... in almost every town and village...'
Superstrong Multilayer Metal-Graphene Composite Material
Negligible increase in weight increased material strength by hundreds of times.
Deepfakes Imperil Democracy (George Orwell, Right Again)
'All history was a palimpsest, scraped clean and reinscribed exactly as often as was necessary.'
String Art Courtesy Of Robot Artist
The number of different ways to span a thread between a larger number of hooks is astronomical.
Still Wondering If You'd Work For A Robot Boss?
'This is all coming to you courtesy of the simstim unit wired into your deck, of course.'
World's First Autonomous Tram In Germany
What's it like for autonomous trams when they're turned off at night?
More SF in the News Stories
More Beyond Technovelgy science news stories