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Paul Krugman's Asimov Inspiration
During a PBS interview with this year's winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, Dr. Paul Krugman, I found out something I didn't know about Krugman. His career choice was inspired by the science fiction he read as a boy.
(Paul Krugman, erstwhile psychohistorian)
"When and why did you decide to become an economist in the first place?"
"That's a little embarrassing. I don't know how many of your viewers read science fiction, but there's a very old series by Isaac Asimov - the Foundation novels - in which the social scientists who understand the true dynamics save civilization. That's what I wanted to be; it doesn't exist, but economics is as close as you can get, so as a teenager I really got into it."
Krugman is talking about the psychohistorians like Hari Seldon, who practiced the science of psychohistory; in the Foundation series, Seldon predicts the fall of the Galactic Empire and then works with a team to reduce the period during which civilization falls into barbarism to a single millenium.
Here is how Isaac Asimov defines psychohistory in the novel:
PSYCHOHISTORY–...Gaal Dornick, using nonmathematical concepts, has defined
psychohistory to be that branch of mathematics which deals with the
reactions of human conglomerates to fixed social and economic stimuli....
... Implicit in all these definitions is the assumption that the human
conglomerate being dealt with is sufficiently large for valid statistical
treatment. The necessary size of such a conglomerate may be determined by
Seldon's First Theorem which ... A further necessary assumption is that the
human conglomerate be itself unaware of psychohistoric analysis in order
that its reactions be truly random ...
The basis of all valid psychohistory lies in the development of the Seldon Plan.
Functions which exhibit properties congruent to those of such social and
economic forces as ...
The quote is from the Newshour with Jim Lehrer for Monday, October 13, 2008.
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