Science Fiction
Dictionary
A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
 |
SciCast Prediction Market Offers Collaborative Forecasting
SciCast is a crowdsourced forecasting platform based on the idea that the collective wisdom of an informed and diverse group can be gathered and used to accurately predict future events.
(SciCast crowdsourced forecasting platform )
Unlike other forecasting sites, SciCast can create relationships between forecast questions that may have an influence on each other. For example, we may ask a question about the volume of sea ice in the Arctic in a given month. We may also ask a question about average temperature in this same locale or other influencing metrics. SciCast will learn from its participants how strong of a relationship these questions have to each other and will adjust their outcomes accordingly. So, if participants raise the forecasted average Arctic temperature, SciCast will instantly adjust forecasts for the corresponding level of Arctic sea ice, according to the correlations made by previous forecasters…SciCast is a community-driven initiative. Participants write their own questions in our publishing tool called Spark and participate in a process to get those questions published. SciCast participants can make forecasts at any time about any published question. Unlike a survey, participants can change their forecast at any time to account for new information. In this way, SciCast is a real-time indicator of what our participants think is going to happen.
Technically, SciCast is a (combinatorial) prediction market. Prediction markets can be used to forecast the outcome of a wide variety of topics and are used today in large corporations and governments to understand the likelihood of meeting key performance metrics, quantify risks that may jeopardize operations, and better understand industry trends.
In his 1975 novel The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner introduces sf readers to the idea of a Delphi pool:
It works, approximately, like this.First you corner a large - if possible, a very large - number of people who, while they've never formally studied the subject you're going to ask them about and hence are unlikely to recall the correct answer, are nonetheless plugged into the culture to which the question relates.
Then you ask them, as it might be, to estimate how many people died in the great influenza epidemic which followed World War I...
Curiously, when you consolidate their replies they tend to cluster around the actual figure as recorded in almanacs, yearbooks and statical returns.
Well, if it works for the past, why can't it work for the future? Three hundred million people with access to the integrated North American data-net is a nice big number of potential consultees.
(Read more about Brunner's Delphi pool)
Scroll down for more stories in the same category. (Story submitted 1/11/2014)
Follow this kind of news @Technovelgy.| Email | RSS | Blog It | Stumble | del.icio.us | Digg | Reddit |
Would
you like to contribute a story tip?
It's easy:
Get the URL of the story, and the related sf author, and add
it here.
Comment/Join discussion ( 0 )
Related News Stories - (" Culture ")
Who First Thought Of A Tin Foil Hat?
'We had discovered that metal was relatively impervious to the telepathic effect.' - Julian Huxley, 1927.
Robot Baristas Learn Their Trade Without Paying Royalties
'...so we've promised him a generous pension from the royalties.' - Anthony Boucher, 1943.
Vesuvius Challenge Accepted - Ancient Burnt Scroll Read!
'The image on the Trimagniscope tube was an enlarged view of one of the pocket-size books found on the body...' - James P. Hogan, 1977.
Humans Love Helping Other Species
'At the ringside opposite them a table had been removed to make room for a large transparent plastic capsule on wheels.' - Robert Heinlein, 1951.
Technovelgy (that's tech-novel-gee!) is devoted to the creative science inventions and ideas of sf authors. Look for the Invention Category that interests you, the Glossary, the Invention Timeline, or see what's New.
Science Fiction
Timeline
1600-1899
1900-1939
1940's 1950's
1960's 1970's
1980's 1990's
2000's 2010's
Current News
Nuclear Plant Restarted To Power AI To Feed Us Dreams
'...Anything was possible in my imaginary environment.'
SpaceX's Starman Tesla Roadster In Space
'Somewhere in space, a chrome and blue automobile raced the green light of Earth.'
Pivotal Blackfly Electric Aircraft Lifts And Hovers
'That explains how it was so easy for me to remain motionless in midair...'
CORLEO Robotic Horse Concept Looks Ready To Ride
Imagine digging your heels in to a steam horse!
Who First Thought Of A Tin Foil Hat?
'We had discovered that metal was relatively impervious to the telepathic effect.'
Warp Drive Tech Back On The Menu
'Detailed plans for the construction of the Gundstetter-Halone warp drive were flowing.'
Huawei Pura X Folding Phattie Phone
Why can't we get more innovative phone configurations?
Sleep Pods At Daxing International Airport
'Do not waste your priceless company on the unappreciative folds of a sleep pod...'
Robot Baristas Learn Their Trade Without Paying Royalties
'...so we've promised him a generous pension from the royalties.'
JAXA Int Ball 2 Coming Right Along As Star Wars Remote
'Hocus-pocus religions and archaic weapons are no substitute for a good blaster at your side.'
Robot Bricklayer Or Passer-By Bricklayer?
'Oscar picked up a trowel. 'I'm the tool for the mortar,' the little trowel squeaked cheerfully.'
Robot Gas Station Attendant Pumps Gas For You
'... he waited for the robotrix attendant to finish fueling up his ship.'
Engineer Creates Crazy Motorized Track Hospital Bed
The Roujin Z system provides care to fully bedridden patients - and then some!
Tiny Flying Robot Weighs Just One Gram
'Aerostat meant anything that hung in the air. This was an easy trick to pull off nowadays.'
Some Ringworld Configurations Are Stable
'The Ringworld had no horizon. There was no line where the land curved away from the sky.'
TRANSFORM Dynamic Furniture Concept Becomes What You Need
'An adjustment panel outside the door would cause it to extrude various appurtenances in memory plastic...'
