Science Fiction
Dictionary
A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
 |
SciCast Prediction Market Offers Collaborative Forecasting
SciCast is a crowdsourced forecasting platform based on the idea that the collective wisdom of an informed and diverse group can be gathered and used to accurately predict future events.
(SciCast crowdsourced forecasting platform )
Unlike other forecasting sites, SciCast can create relationships between forecast questions that may have an influence on each other. For example, we may ask a question about the volume of sea ice in the Arctic in a given month. We may also ask a question about average temperature in this same locale or other influencing metrics. SciCast will learn from its participants how strong of a relationship these questions have to each other and will adjust their outcomes accordingly. So, if participants raise the forecasted average Arctic temperature, SciCast will instantly adjust forecasts for the corresponding level of Arctic sea ice, according to the correlations made by previous forecasters…SciCast is a community-driven initiative. Participants write their own questions in our publishing tool called Spark and participate in a process to get those questions published. SciCast participants can make forecasts at any time about any published question. Unlike a survey, participants can change their forecast at any time to account for new information. In this way, SciCast is a real-time indicator of what our participants think is going to happen.
Technically, SciCast is a (combinatorial) prediction market. Prediction markets can be used to forecast the outcome of a wide variety of topics and are used today in large corporations and governments to understand the likelihood of meeting key performance metrics, quantify risks that may jeopardize operations, and better understand industry trends.
In his 1975 novel The Shockwave Rider, John Brunner introduces sf readers to the idea of a Delphi pool:
It works, approximately, like this.First you corner a large - if possible, a very large - number of people who, while they've never formally studied the subject you're going to ask them about and hence are unlikely to recall the correct answer, are nonetheless plugged into the culture to which the question relates.
Then you ask them, as it might be, to estimate how many people died in the great influenza epidemic which followed World War I...
Curiously, when you consolidate their replies they tend to cluster around the actual figure as recorded in almanacs, yearbooks and statical returns.
Well, if it works for the past, why can't it work for the future? Three hundred million people with access to the integrated North American data-net is a nice big number of potential consultees.
(Read more about Brunner's Delphi pool)
Scroll down for more stories in the same category. (Story submitted 1/11/2014)
Follow this kind of news @Technovelgy.| Email | RSS | Blog It | Stumble | del.icio.us | Digg | Reddit |
Would
you like to contribute a story tip?
It's easy:
Get the URL of the story, and the related sf author, and add
it here.
Comment/Join discussion ( 0 )
Related News Stories - (" Culture ")
California Fireman Arrested For Starting Fires
'Fire is bright and fire is clean.' - Ray Brandbury, 1953.
Tether Cryptocurrency Flow Rate US$190Bn Per Day
'Alex did not find it surprising that people... were electronically minting their own cash.' - Bruce Sterling, 1994.
Poul Anderson's 'Brain Wave'
"Everybody and his dog, it seemed, wanted to live out in the country; transportation and communication were no longer isolating factors." - Poul Anderson, 1953.
Waymo Cars Shout At Each Other, Autonomously
'My cars talk to one another. I have no doubt about it...' - Isaac Asimov, 1953.
Technovelgy (that's tech-novel-gee!) is devoted to the creative science inventions and ideas of sf authors. Look for the Invention Category that interests you, the Glossary, the Invention Timeline, or see what's New.
Science Fiction
Timeline
1600-1899
1900-1939
1940's 1950's
1960's 1970's
1980's 1990's
2000's 2010's
Current News
California Fireman Arrested For Starting Fires
'Fire is bright and fire is clean.'
Robots Need A Better Sense Of Touch
'First, it rubbed my arms...'
MouthPad Supports Head And Tongue Tracking
'The operation that had transformed half his body... had located the control switchboard in his teeth.'
REALLY Remote Control Excavators
'It takes over a second for the signal to get to the Moon...'
Disney Helping Robots Dance
Dance, Robots, Dance.
Kolors Virtual-Try-On Predicted, And TRIED, By Harry Harrison
'Bill blinked at his own face under the plumed helmet...'
Detecting Drones In Ukraine With Candy (Sukork)
'...a robot detector circuit closed, activating a bell."
Nevada Will Use AI To Decide Worker Benefits
'They had screwed up and been blacklisted by Manna.'
Tether Cryptocurrency Flow Rate US$190Bn Per Day
'Alex did not find it surprising that people... were electronically minting their own cash.'
First Trips To Mars Announced By Elon Musk
'I had determined that my first attempt should be a visit to Mars.'
WaPOCHI Micro-Mobility Robot Follows Like A Pet With Your Bags
To follow the user like a pet while carrying their cargo!
Ultra-Realistic Robotic Arowana Robo-Fish
'Deveet unhooked his catch and laid it on the bank beside him. It was a metal fish.'
GITAI R1 Lunar Rover Like NASA Robonaut Centaur
'...waldoes in the screen followed in exact, simultaneous parallelism.'
Meshworm Soft Robot, With Peristaltic Crawling, Is Getting Better
'Seen close it was not completely flexible, but made instead of pivoted and smoothly finished segments.'
Mushroom 'Robot' Is Just A Start
'Some unknown race ... decided to help them out.'
Tesla Electric 'Giga Train' Operational In Germany
'...the cars are wedge-shaped at both ends.'
