|
Science Fiction
Dictionary
A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
|
|
Cliodynamics: Modeling Complex Societies Mathematically
A mathematical model that describes the instability of large complex societies has been developed by a team lead by Sergey Gavrilets, associate director for scientific activities at the National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis and a professor at the University of Tennessee-Knoxville.
The research has been published in the first issue of the new journal Cliodynamics: The Journal of Theoretical and Mathematical History, the first academic journal dedicated to research from the emerging science of theoretical history and mathematics.
(Modeling complex societies)
This image shows a hexagonal array of initially autonomous
local communities or villages, which is part of a polity.
Polities grow, decrease in size, or disappear as a result of
conquest with the winner absorbing all of part of the loser.
The numerical model focuses on both size and complexity of emerging "polities" or states as well as their longevity and settlement patterns as a result of warfare. A number of factors were measured, but unexpectedly, the largest effect on the results was due to just two factors – the scaling of a state's power to the probability of winning a conflict and a leader's average time in power. According to the model, the stability of large, complex polities is strongly promoted if the outcomes of conflicts are mostly determined by the polities' wealth or power, if there exist well-defined and accepted means of succession, and if control mechanisms within polities are internally specialized. The results also showed that polities experience what the authors call "chiefly cycles" or rapid cycles of growth and collapse due to warfare.
The wealthiest of polities does not necessarily win a conflict, however. There are many other factors besides wealth that can affect the outcome of a conflict, the authors write. The model also suggests that the rapid collapse of a polity can occur even without environmental disturbances, such as drought or overpopulation.
By using a mathematical model, the researchers were able to capture the dynamical processes that cause chiefdoms, states and empires to emerge, persist and collapse at the scale of decades to centuries.
"In the last several decades, mathematical models have been traditionally important in the physical, life and economic sciences, but now they are also becoming important for explaining historical data," said Gavrilets. "Our model provides theoretical support for the view that cultural, demographic and ecological conditions can predict the emergence and dynamics of complex societies."
Old school science fiction fans readily recall psychohistorians like Hari Seldon, who practiced the science of psychohistory; in the Foundation series, Seldon predicts the fall of the Galactic Empire mathematically (sometimes using his calculator pad) and then works with a team to reduce the period during which civilization falls into barbarism to a single millenium.
Here is how Isaac Asimov defines psychohistory in the novel:
PSYCHOHISTORY–...Gaal Dornick, using nonmathematical concepts, has defined
psychohistory to be that branch of mathematics which deals with the
reactions of human conglomerates to fixed social and economic stimuli....
... Implicit in all these definitions is the assumption that the human
conglomerate being dealt with is sufficiently large for valid statistical
treatment. The necessary size of such a conglomerate may be determined by
Seldon's First Theorem which ... A further necessary assumption is that the
human conglomerate be itself unaware of psychohistoric analysis in order
that its reactions be truly random ...
The basis of all valid psychohistory lies in the development of the Seldon Plan.
Functions which exhibit properties congruent to those of such social and
economic forces as ...
ENCYCLOPEDIA GALACTICA
One can easily imagine that the first issue of Cliodynamics could be projected on the wall, prime radiant- style. the "fine neatly printed equations in black".
Via Eurekalert and Cliodynamics.
Scroll down for more stories in the same category. (Story submitted 1/19/2011)
Follow this kind of news @Technovelgy.
| Email | RSS | Blog It | Stumble | del.icio.us | Digg | Reddit |
Would
you like to contribute a story tip?
It's easy:
Get the URL of the story, and the related sf author, and add
it here.
Comment/Join discussion ( 3 )
Related News Stories -
("
Culture
")
How Old Are Tesla Designs?
You be the judge.
California Fireman Arrested For Starting Fires
'Fire is bright and fire is clean.' - Ray Brandbury, 1953.
Tether Cryptocurrency Flow Rate US$190Bn Per Day
'Alex did not find it surprising that people... were electronically minting their own cash.' - Bruce Sterling, 1994.
Poul Anderson's 'Brain Wave'
"Everybody and his dog, it seemed, wanted to live out in the country; transportation and communication were no longer isolating factors." - Poul Anderson, 1953.
Technovelgy (that's tech-novel-gee!)
is devoted to the creative science inventions and ideas of sf authors. Look for
the Invention Category that interests
you, the Glossary, the Invention
Timeline, or see what's New.
|
|
Science Fiction
Timeline
1600-1899
1900-1939
1940's 1950's
1960's 1970's
1980's 1990's
2000's 2010's
Current News
AI Welfare Position At Anthropic Filled By Human
'You’re the robopsychologist of the plant, so you’re to study the robot itself...'
Marslink Proposed By SpaceX
'It was the heart of the Solar System's communication line...'
Simple Way To Defeat AI Face Recognition
'... designed to foil facial recognition systems.'
Wood-Panelled LignoSat Launched
'The Consul remembered his first glimpse of the kilometer-long treeship...'
Laser-Beam Welding In Orbital Factories
'His contract with Space Industries required him to work summers in their orbital factory.'
'Iceberg House' Of Travis Kelce Reflects Science Fiction Of Past Century
'The basement was huge... carved deep into the rock that folded up to underlie the ridge...'
Mechazilla Arms Catch A Falling Starship, But Check Out SF Landing-ARMS
'...the rocket’s landing-arms automatically unfolded.'
A System To Defeat AI Face Recognition
'...points and patches of light... sliding all over their faces in a programmed manner that had been designed to foil facial recognition systems.'
Robot Hand Separate From Robot
'The crawling, exploring object was V-Stephen's surgeon-hand...'
Hybrid Wind Solar Devices
'...the combined Wind-Suncatcher, like a spray of tulips mounted fanwise.'
Is Optimus Autonomous Or Teleoperated?
'I went to the control room where the three other men were manipulating their mechanical men.'
Robot Masseuse Rubs People The Right Way
'The automatic massager began to fumble gently...'
Solar-Powered Space Trains On The Moon
'The low-slung monorail car, straddling its single track, bored through the shadows on a slowly rising course.'
Drone Deliveries Instead Of Waiters In Restaurants?
'It was a smooth ovoid floating a few inches from the floor...'
Optimus Robot Can Charge Itself
'... he thrust in his charging arm to replenish his store of energy.'
Skip Movewear Arc'teryx AI Pants
'...the terrible Jovian gravity that made each movement an effort.'
More SF in the News Stories
More Beyond Technovelgy science news stories
|
|