Science Fiction
Dictionary
A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z
 |
Cliodynamics: Modeling Complex Societies Mathematically
A mathematical model that describes the instability of large complex societies has been developed by a team lead by Sergey Gavrilets, associate director for scientific activities at the National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis and a professor at the University of Tennessee-Knoxville.
The research has been published in the first issue of the new journal Cliodynamics: The Journal of Theoretical and Mathematical History, the first academic journal dedicated to research from the emerging science of theoretical history and mathematics.
(Modeling complex societies)
This image shows a hexagonal array of initially autonomous
local communities or villages, which is part of a polity.
Polities grow, decrease in size, or disappear as a result of
conquest with the winner absorbing all of part of the loser.
The numerical model focuses on both size and complexity of emerging "polities" or states as well as their longevity and settlement patterns as a result of warfare. A number of factors were measured, but unexpectedly, the largest effect on the results was due to just two factors – the scaling of a state's power to the probability of winning a conflict and a leader's average time in power. According to the model, the stability of large, complex polities is strongly promoted if the outcomes of conflicts are mostly determined by the polities' wealth or power, if there exist well-defined and accepted means of succession, and if control mechanisms within polities are internally specialized. The results also showed that polities experience what the authors call "chiefly cycles" or rapid cycles of growth and collapse due to warfare.The wealthiest of polities does not necessarily win a conflict, however. There are many other factors besides wealth that can affect the outcome of a conflict, the authors write. The model also suggests that the rapid collapse of a polity can occur even without environmental disturbances, such as drought or overpopulation.
By using a mathematical model, the researchers were able to capture the dynamical processes that cause chiefdoms, states and empires to emerge, persist and collapse at the scale of decades to centuries.
"In the last several decades, mathematical models have been traditionally important in the physical, life and economic sciences, but now they are also becoming important for explaining historical data," said Gavrilets. "Our model provides theoretical support for the view that cultural, demographic and ecological conditions can predict the emergence and dynamics of complex societies."
Old school science fiction fans readily recall psychohistorians like Hari Seldon, who practiced the science of psychohistory; in the Foundation series, Seldon predicts the fall of the Galactic Empire mathematically (sometimes using his calculator pad) and then works with a team to reduce the period during which civilization falls into barbarism to a single millenium.
Here is how Isaac Asimov defines psychohistory in the novel:
PSYCHOHISTORY–...Gaal Dornick, using nonmathematical concepts, has defined psychohistory to be that branch of mathematics which deals with the reactions of human conglomerates to fixed social and economic stimuli....... Implicit in all these definitions is the assumption that the human conglomerate being dealt with is sufficiently large for valid statistical treatment. The necessary size of such a conglomerate may be determined by Seldon's First Theorem which ... A further necessary assumption is that the human conglomerate be itself unaware of psychohistoric analysis in order that its reactions be truly random ...
The basis of all valid psychohistory lies in the development of the Seldon Plan. Functions which exhibit properties congruent to those of such social and economic forces as ...
ENCYCLOPEDIA GALACTICA
One can easily imagine that the first issue of Cliodynamics could be projected on the wall, prime radiant- style. the "fine neatly printed equations in black".
Via Eurekalert and Cliodynamics.
Scroll down for more stories in the same category. (Story submitted 1/19/2011)
Follow this kind of news @Technovelgy.| Email | RSS | Blog It | Stumble | del.icio.us | Digg | Reddit |
Would
you like to contribute a story tip?
It's easy:
Get the URL of the story, and the related sf author, and add
it here.
Comment/Join discussion ( 3 )
Related News Stories - (" Culture ")
Has Elon Musk Given Up On Mars?
'There ain't no such thing as a free lunch.'
'They Erased My Memory' Says Ariana Grande
'...using a neutralizing electronic impulse.' - Edmond Hamilton, 1948.
'Spikeless' Brand Swizzle Stick Detects Spiked Drinks
'the unobtrusive inspections with tiny remote-cast snoopers...' - Frank Herbert, 1964.
Musk Proposes Sites For Martian Cities
'...its streets were of remarkable width, with few or no buildings so high as mosques, churches, State-offices, or palaces in Tellurian cities.' - Percy Greg, 1880.
Technovelgy (that's tech-novel-gee!) is devoted to the creative science inventions and ideas of sf authors. Look for the Invention Category that interests you, the Glossary, the Invention Timeline, or see what's New.
Science Fiction
Timeline
1600-1899
1900-1939
1940's 1950's
1960's 1970's
1980's 1990's
2000's 2010's
Current News
China Steals Strato Airship Design From Google App Engine
'...war-balloons, or, as it would be more correct to call them, navigable aerostats.'
The First Space Warship For Space Force
'Each of the electrical ships carried about twenty men...'
Biohybrid Jellyfish Explore The Ocean
As predicted, and detailed, by science fiction writers!
Should AIs and AI Robots Demand Rights?
'This robot is a creature... It is a manlike being. Therefore, like any other talking, thinking man, he is entitled to a court trial!'
Robot Learns Human Tool Usage By Imitation Learning
'I got one of those new electronic cameras...'
Companion Caregiver ChatGPT Dolls
'Every Artificial Friend is unique, right?'
'Pregnancy Humanoids' From China Replace Moms
'A great many of these synthetic babies were made...'
Man Builds 200 Foot Basement Firing Range
'The basement was huge... carved deep into the rock.'
Russians Create Robot Tank Platoons
'The remotely-operated robot tank is an old idea...'
3D-Printed Exoskeleton Learns From Your Hand
'...small electric motors at the principal joints worked the prosthetic framework by means of steel cables...'
Smartwatch Powered By Slime Mold
'Living protoplasm incorporated into the Ampek F-a2 recording system...'
Unmanned Boats Attack At Sea
'The autofreighter smashed into the boat...'
Carpentopod Walking Table
'Twoflower's Luggage, which was currently ambling along on its little legs...'
Iron Drone Raider Counter-UAV Operations
'You've got an aggressive machine up in the air now.'
SpaceX Rocket Shuttle Point-To-Point On Earth
'He came to as the ship went into free flight, arching in a high parabola over the plains...'
Quaise Uses Beams Of Energy To Dig Geothermal Wells
'The peculiar quality of this light, which gave it its great preeminence over all other penetrating rays...'
